Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 election places Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, in a narrow band of roughly 7–9 Knesset seats, consistent with vote shares near the 5.5–7.5% range that dominate trader pricing. Proportional representation and the 3.25% threshold amplify small swings in right-wing turnout and competition from Religious Zionism–Zehut and other nationalist lists. Surplus-vote negotiations, Ben-Gvir's campaign events targeting English-speaking and settler voters, and minor legal scrutiny of party figures have introduced modest volatility without clear directional impact. With the overall right-religious bloc hovering near or below a majority in most surveys, Otzma Yehudit's final share hinges on last-minute mobilization among its core supporters and any late shifts in fragmented right-wing preferences.