**Mojtaba Khamenei has held the supreme leader position since his March 2026 appointment by the Assembly of Experts following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in February 2026 US-Israeli strikes.** Trader odds for near-term change remain low, with implied probabilities for a shift by late 2026 in the mid-teens and rising modestly into 2027, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated continuity through IRGC-backed military reshuffles in August and sustained elite coordination. President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly confirmed direct meetings with Mojtaba, describing him as healthy and retaining final authority despite limited public appearances that have fueled health rumors. Recent diplomatic outreach on Strait of Hormuz reopening and regional de-escalation has been coordinated with the leader, underscoring institutional stability amid ongoing tensions. No major verified events in the past month have altered this positioning, though prolonged absence or further conflict escalation could still introduce uncertainty.