**Nuevas Ideas maintains overwhelming dominance in legislative vote intention ahead of the February 28, 2027, election, leaving the contest for third place fragmented among smaller opposition parties.** Recent polls show the ruling party capturing 50-86% of intended legislative votes, consistent with its 54-seat majority after 2024 and structural advantages from the 2025 constitutional reforms that unified the ballot and removed the presidential runoff. Opposition parties remain in low single digits overall, with no major polling shifts or new endorsements reported since the Tribunal Supremo Electoral formally convened the vote on September 30, 2026. Candidate registration opened October 1 and runs through November 19, while the official campaign period begins October 27; these early-stage mechanics sustain uncertainty over final vote shares among the roughly eleven eligible parties. Trader pricing for third place—led by Vamos near 29% implied probability, followed by PDC, PCN, and PAIS in the high teens—reflects this dispersion, as historical base rates for smaller Salvadoran parties and the absence of decisive late-cycle catalysts keep the field competitive rather than consolidated. New overseas voting provisions and the expanded 60-seat assembly add variables but have not yet produced measurable movement in lower-order positioning.