Iliana Iotova holds an 88.5% market-implied probability in the October 25 Bulgarian presidential election due to her position as incumbent, consistent polling leads of 41–51% in late September and early October surveys, and backing from the Bulgarian Socialist Party along with Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria. Andrey Gyurov sits at 11.5% as the clearest challenger, backed by We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria and polling 22–27%, with analysts viewing a runoff on November 1 as the most probable outcome given low expected turnout of 36–40%. Other candidates, including Kostadin Kostadinov, register single-digit support and remain marginal. Recent polling stability and the incumbent’s structural advantages in a fragmented field have anchored trader consensus on these probabilities.