In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD secured the largest share of seats in the September 2026 state election but fell three short of a majority, prompting ongoing negotiations over the minister-president vote scheduled for December. Cross-party support helped elect an AfD parliament speaker in early October, signaling potential cracks in the longstanding firewall maintained by the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left against cooperation. The small BSW party, which opposes mass immigration and favors closer Russia ties, has signaled willingness to abstain on key votes, raising the prospect of a minority government or tolerated arrangement. Similar AfD leads in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania yielded no governing path due to the same exclusion policy. With no other state elections imminent before 2029, trader consensus at 58% for AfD inclusion in a 2026 state government centers on whether defections or procedural shifts materialize in Saxony-Anhalt by year-end.