Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has accelerated West Bank settlement approvals, land registration reforms, and outpost legalizations in 2026, moves Palestinians describe as de facto annexation that strengthen Israeli administrative control without formal sovereignty declarations. Traders assign only a 4% chance of declared annexation before 2027 largely because of sustained U.S. opposition, including explicit statements from the Trump administration against such steps, alongside risks to regional normalization ties and potential diplomatic isolation. Netanyahu has repeatedly frozen or distanced the government from full annexation bills advanced by far-right partners like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, prioritizing coalition stability and security priorities over formal measures ahead of the October 2026 election. A post-election shift granting hardliners greater leverage or a major change in U.S. policy could still alter this trajectory.