Israeli settlement expansion and administrative measures in the West Bank have accelerated under the current coalition, including new outposts, E1 tenders, and eased land registration rules that analysts describe as steps toward de facto control without formal sovereignty. Trader consensus at 96% against annexation before 2027 reflects persistent external constraints, notably U.S. opposition to an explicit declaration, alongside Israeli leadership priorities favoring incremental settlement growth over a politically costly sovereignty vote amid upcoming Knesset elections. Far-right coalition voices continue pressing for full annexation, yet past legislative efforts stalled and current actions emphasize facts on the ground. A post-election coalition shift, major diplomatic realignment, or acute security escalation could still alter timelines, though such shifts appear unlikely within the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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