Escalating Iranian IRGC strikes on commercial tankers and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters form the core driver of trader sentiment, with at least a dozen reported attacks in the first half of October 2026 amid the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. These incidents—primarily projectiles, drones, and claimed mine strikes—have reduced daily transits, kept crude flows well below pre-conflict levels, and supported oil prices above $100 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect the sustained campaign, as UKMTO and security firms document repeated outbound tanker fires and damage, while U.S. enforcement actions and Iranian assertions of control over unauthorized routes add volatility. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC or energy data releases that could shift risk appetite, alongside any escalation in U.S.-Iran naval encounters or regulatory responses affecting insurance and freight rates.