Incumbent Patrick Johnstone holds a commanding position in the New Westminster, BC mayoral race ahead of the October 17 vote, backed by his Community First New Westminster party’s council majority and recent labour council endorsement. Traders assign him an implied probability near 88 percent, reflecting his record advancing affordable housing, urban forestry, and crisis response initiatives on homelessness and mental health. Challenger Daniel Fontaine of the New Westminster Progressives, a sitting councillor, trails at roughly 12 percent amid policy contrasts on taxes, bike infrastructure, safe consumption sites, and the balance between municipal action and provincial responsibility for housing and addiction services. With nominations closed and only these two serious contenders on the ballot, recent candidate forums and platform releases have not shifted the consensus. The short window before election day leaves limited scope for late developments to alter outcomes.