**Strong bipartisan opposition in Congress, repeated White House statements that no pardon is under consideration, and the acting attorney general’s explicit commitment not to recommend clemency have produced the market’s 96.5% “No” consensus.** Maxwell’s legal appeals have largely been exhausted, leaving a presidential pardon or commutation as her primary remaining avenue, yet her offers to testify in exchange for relief have drawn unanimous Senate resolutions against clemency and sharp criticism from both parties. Administration officials have consistently described the matter as neither a priority nor under active review through mid-2026. With only weeks remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline and no procedural signals of movement, traders assign very low odds to any reversal. The principal remaining uncertainties involve an unforeseen late-term decision or a major new development that alters the political calculus.