The election for Israel’s 120-seat Knesset is set for October 27, 2026, after the outgoing legislature completed its full four-year term and dissolved in July—the first such instance since 1988. Party lists have been finalized, surplus-vote pacts are being negotiated ahead of the mid-October deadline, and overseas voting begins October 20, with no legislative moves or court rulings altering the calendar. Ongoing polling shows neither major bloc near a majority, yet campaign activity and procedural milestones continue uninterrupted. Recent diplomatic signals, including U.S. statements on regional security, have not triggered postponement risks that previously surfaced in conflict discussions. Traders therefore assign the scheduled date a strong implied probability, reflecting the absence of dissolution mechanisms or external shocks capable of shifting the timeline in the final weeks.