Traders assign a 97.9% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations or full war games since late 2025, with Beijing continuing gray-zone pressure through routine PLA aircraft and vessel activity around the island. Recent coastal live-fire drills off mainland China and responses to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s National Day remarks reflect standard signaling rather than imminent escalation. U.S. assessments in early October highlighted delays in Chinese military readiness and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 election outcomes as factors reducing near-term risks. The limited remaining timeline further reinforces consensus. Potential shifts could still arise from sudden escalation in Strait drills, leadership health events, or major diplomatic breakthroughs altering deterrence calculations.