Recent polls show Labour and National tied at around 28% in party vote support ahead of the November 7 election, with minor shifts following the recent leaders' debate that lifted Labour leader Chris Hipkins in preferred prime minister ratings. This near-parity under the MMP system keeps the contest for second place extremely close between the two major parties, while smaller parties such as the Greens remain well behind in aggregated surveys. Trader sentiment reflects the tight race, where small changes in turnout among swing voters or last-minute campaign developments could separate the leaders before election night.