Frank Scarpitti maintains a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Markham mayoral market due to his two-decade incumbency since 2006 and repeated strong re-election results, including 64% of the vote in 2022. Nominations closed in August 2026 with only two challengers—Martin Ross, whose campaign centers on a personal zoning dispute, and Stephen Edgell—leaving a narrow field against the longest-serving mayor in Markham history. Recent visibility through provincial advocacy on mental health and housing measures has reinforced his position ahead of the October 16–26 voting period. Traders assign Martin Ross just 6.8%, reflecting limited challenger momentum in a city with historically low turnout. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unexpected surge in opposition mobilization could still alter the outcome before election day.