Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list secured a narrow plurality of roughly 27.7% in Lima’s October 4 municipal election, ahead of Francis Allison’s Avanza País at 26.8% and Carlos Bruce at 15.1%, with the margin holding near 45,000 votes as final tallies and observed sheets undergo review. López Aliaga, the party leader and former mayor who resigned in 2025, appears on the ballot only as first councilor after the original mayoral nominee withdrew; Peruvian rules bar immediate reelection, yet the first councilor customarily assumes the post when a list prevails, leaving the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones to resolve credentialing. Traders assign López Aliaga an 83.4% implied probability because his list’s lead and procedural precedent outweigh the legal dispute, while Allison sits at 4.3% and all remaining candidates remain at or below 0.2%, consistent with their distant vote shares and the absence of runoffs. Remaining ballot challenges and any court ruling on eligibility constitute the principal near-term variables.