Anthropic’s targeted $2 trillion valuation for its planned November 2026 listing drives the narrow 51.4% implied probability lead over SpaceX’s 45.5% in this market, reflecting trader consensus that its debut will eclipse the $1.77 trillion market cap set by SpaceX’s June IPO. Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing, $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, and $1.8–2 trillion investor expectations position it to surpass the prior record, while SpaceX’s post-IPO trading near $171 per share and integration of xAI provide a high benchmark but limit further upside in 2026. Key swing factors include Anthropic’s roadshow execution amid heavy compute commitments and losses, potential market volatility affecting pricing, and confirmation that no other filer reaches comparable scale before year-end.