The overwhelming trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 arises from fundamental geophysical constraints on Earth's tectonic systems, where no known fault can produce the rupture length exceeding 1,000 kilometers combined with sufficient slip to reach that threshold on the moment magnitude scale. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile in 1960, with subsequent great earthquakes such as the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku events falling well below M9.5, and USGS monitoring through 2026 shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns capable of altering this baseline. While revised subduction-zone models or rare non-tectonic triggers like a massive asteroid impact could theoretically shift assessments, the absence of any credible near-term indicators sustains the near-certain market-implied probability through the short resolution window.