US military strikes on Kharg Island have repeatedly targeted Iranian defense sites and military assets since spring 2026, including rounds in October, while sparing the core oil-loading infrastructure that handles the bulk of Iran’s crude exports. Iranian officials report continued terminal operations and tanker movements despite regional naval blockades and Hormuz disruptions, with export activity described as normal though reduced and subject to congestion. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to loss of Iranian control through year-end because no ground seizure or sustained occupation has occurred, and statements from Washington emphasize strikes and sanctions over territorial control. Further escalation risks remain tied to any expansion of strikes or blockade enforcement, but primary sources indicate the island remains under Iranian administration with defense systems reactivated after attacks.