Kharg Island remains under Iranian governmental and military control as of mid-October 2026, with Iranian officials confirming normal terminal operations and export activity despite targeted U.S. strikes on nearby military assets in recent weeks. Shipping data shows tankers positioned for loadings, while parliamentary visits focused on infrastructure maintenance and upgrades rather than any disruption in sovereignty. Reduced export volumes stem from broader maritime tensions and sanctions in the Strait of Hormuz, yet these have not altered primary control. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of occupation or transfer absent a major escalation involving ground forces, with historical patterns showing strikes on air defenses and launchers failing to produce such an outcome. Resolution would require verifiable establishment of another authority's control by the specified date.