**Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a commanding lead in the Keelung mayoral race ahead of the November 28, 2026, local elections.** As the KMT incumbent seeking a second term in a traditionally blue-leaning city, he benefits from name recognition, administrative experience, and survival of a 2024 recall effort. The main challenger, DPP candidate Tung Tzu-wei, a young city council speaker from a political family, brings local roots and strong performance in prior council races but trails in current trader pricing. The independent candidate Wei Tsao-wen registers negligible support. Recent candidate registration closure and ongoing campaign activity have reinforced the market's view of Hsieh as the clear frontrunner, with implied probabilities reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency over the competitive but narrower path available to the opposition.