Recent polls project United Torah Judaism at seven or eight Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5.8–6.7 percent of the vote, which keeps the 5–6 percent and 6–7 percent bins closely matched in trader pricing. The party’s newly stated conditions for any government—passage of draft-exemption legislation before coalition talks—combined with its decision not to align formally with either the Netanyahu or Eisenkot blocs, introduce uncertainty over turnout and voter consolidation within the Haredi sector. A surplus-vote agreement signed with Shas on October 11 reinforces bloc discipline but does not alter seat projections. Low Haredi voter enthusiasm, competition from right-wing lists, and the two-week window until the October 27 election remain the main variables that could push results above or below the current 7–8 seat range reflected in recent surveys.