Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, reflecting a tight contest with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and persistent shortfalls for Netanyahu’s coalition bloc near 53 seats. Multiple surveys from early October show Likud trailing or tied with Yashar while undecided voters remain near 30 percent, limiting upside for the ruling party. Security concerns tied to the post-October 2023 period and debates over coalition partners continue to shape voter shifts without producing a decisive swing. Trader consensus on the 20–24 range aligns with these aggregates, as higher outcomes would require sustained gains beyond current trends and lower results would depend on further erosion among traditional supporters.