**Ongoing US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria, initiated after the December 2024 fall of the Assad regime, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment on normalization prospects.** These discussions, including a January 2026 Paris meeting establishing a joint intelligence and de-escalation cell plus later rounds in Amman, have reportedly addressed most issues for a buffer-zone security arrangement tied to the 1974 disengagement lines. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has signaled openness to broader peace if Israel withdraws from post-2024 positions, while insisting the Golan Heights remain Syrian territory. However, recent Israeli actions—including new outposts, the Sufa 53 line in southern Syria, and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s September 2026 Mount Hermon visit affirming no withdrawal—have prompted Syrian condemnations at the UN and heightened tensions through October 2026. US pressure under the Trump administration continues to link security understandings to potential normalization or Abraham Accords entry, but core disputes over sovereignty, buffer zones, and Golan claims create significant barriers. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any shifts in Israeli deployments or Syrian commitments could influence probabilities in the near term.