**Iran's post-February 2026 leadership transition and ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict have intensified internal factional tensions, with hardliners accusing pragmatic officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of pursuing a "soft coup" or political coup by elevating the Supreme National Security Council while diminishing the supreme leader's authority.** These claims emerged prominently after Ali Khamenei's assassination and the funeral period, amid stalled negotiations, economic strain, and protests. Recent militant attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan and disputes over diplomatic moves have further highlighted power struggles between IRGC-linked hardliners and moderates. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these divisions could escalate into open challenges to the new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei or remain contained through repression and institutional controls, with any resolution tied to ceasefire talks, upcoming parliamentary actions, or external military developments.