Short-term ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS underpin the tight trader consensus around 22–24°C for Chongqing’s October 14 high, with implied probabilities reflecting small spreads in predicted maximum temperatures. Regional autumnal cooling, southerly flow, and variable cloud cover over the Sichuan Basin create modest uncertainty in surface heating and boundary-layer mixing, keeping outcomes clustered. Official monitoring by the China Meteorological Administration will provide the resolution data, with final readings sensitive to afternoon convection or clearer skies that could shift the peak by 1–2°C.