Recent model consensus from sources including Open-Meteo and ECMWF points to a high of 15–17°C in Istanbul on October 15 under widespread showers driven by northerly flow and a passing cold front. This has positioned the 16°C outcome as the market favorite at 49.5% implied probability, with 15°C close behind, reflecting the expected cooling from recent 19°C peaks. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation will limit diurnal warming, though exact maxima remain sensitive to timing of heaviest rain and wind shifts. Traders are closely watching updated guidance ahead of the event, as small forecast revisions could shift probabilities among the tightly grouped 15–17°C outcomes.