Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS and local analyses, indicate a maximum temperature near 26°C in Chongqing on October 13 under mostly cloudy skies with light drizzle possible. A cold air intrusion combined with a shear line has promoted increased cloud cover and modest cooling from recent days, limiting daytime heating despite weak southerly flow. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 25–27°C because small differences in cloud thickness, precipitation timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and final station observations will resolve the outcome.