**Trader consensus centers on a 13°C minimum for Wellington on October 13, driven by consistent meteorological model outputs showing overnight lows of 13–14°C under mild northerly flow.** Persistent northerly winds advect warmer maritime air from subtropical latitudes, while extensive cloud cover and light drizzle limit radiative cooling at night. This setup keeps the diurnal range narrow, with daytime highs near 16–17°C and minimal temperature drop after sunset. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and high-resolution models (ECMWF, GFS) aligns on these thresholds, reflecting typical spring conditions modified by a transient low-pressure influence rather than a strong cold outbreak. Recent model runs show little divergence, supporting the elevated implied probability around 13°C while assigning negligible odds to sub-11°C readings.