**Trader consensus on a 15°C low for Wellington on October 14 reflects consistent observational data and model guidance showing minimum temperatures holding near 14–16°C under a mild northerly flow.** Official forecasts from sources such as MetService-aligned models and international guidance (GFS, ECMWF) indicate an overcast, windy regime with dew points around 14–15°C that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping the lowest readings at or above 14°C through the night. Persistent north to northwest winds of 25–40 km/h further mix the boundary layer, preventing sharper drops. Historical October climatology for Wellington shows average lows near 11°C, yet the current synoptic pattern—a stable, warm air mass without cold advection—supports the market-implied outcome. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold front or clear-sky radiative cooling event that drops readings to 12°C or below before midnight, though model consensus and real-time observations make this scenario low-probability.