**Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate mostly clear skies, light southwesterly or westerly winds, and strong daytime radiative heating under high pressure, supporting afternoon highs near 25–26°C on October 15.** This consensus drives the tight market split between 26°C (39%) and 27°C (35%), with traders weighting slight upward biases from urban heat effects or peak-timing differences at the official station. Historical mid-October climatology for Beijing centers around 18–22°C, so current warmth reflects a transient ridge rather than anomalous forcing. Minor model spread in maximum temperature stems from small variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation, while low precipitation risk and stable pressure reduce downside scenarios below 25°C. Updated runs ahead of the 15th will likely narrow the 26–27°C range as diurnal peaks are resolved.