Current forecasts from Environment Canada, NOAA-aligned models, and European guidance indicate Toronto’s overnight low on October 15 will likely fall in the 7–10 °C range, driven by a moderating easterly flow of cooler continental air behind a departing system and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Model consensus shows limited overnight clearing, keeping minimum temperatures above the seasonal average low of roughly 8 °C while ruling out both strong cold-air advection needed for sub-4 °C readings and the warmer boundary-layer conditions required for 13 °C or higher. Traders assign comparable weight to the 13 °C+ and sub-3 °C outcomes because small shifts in wind direction or cloud timing near dawn can still alter the final minimum by several degrees before official Environment Canada verification.