Forecast models from multiple sources, including Met Office and regional analyses, indicate cloud cover and scattered light rain will cap Mexico City's daytime maximum near 23–24°C on October 15, aligning with the market's leading 24°C (48.5%) and 25°C (37.0%) outcomes. Persistent overcast conditions and northeasterly flow suppress solar heating at the city's 2,240 m elevation, consistent with October climatology where average highs reach 22–24°C. Recent model runs show limited disagreement, with only isolated clearing scenarios supporting a 26°C+ push (5.5%). Lower outcomes remain improbable given current moisture and the absence of strong subsidence or clear-sky development. Updated observations through midday will refine these market-implied odds.