Latest ensemble forecasts from major models show Warsaw's October 15 maximum temperature most likely reaching 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with only limited breaks of sun and light northwest winds around 3–5 m/s. Persistent high pressure and a cool maritime air mass limit daytime warming, while overnight lows near 7–8°C set a modest baseline. Slight model spread in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 43.5%–38.5% split between the two leading outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 12°C or 15°C reflecting realistic but less favored deviations. Official observations from Chopin Airport and city stations will resolve the market once the daily high is confirmed.