**Forecast models place Jeddah’s October 15 maximum near 34–36 °C, aligning with the market’s near-even split between 35 °C and 36 °C.** Coastal Red Sea moderation, combined with light westerly winds and possible scattered drizzle or increased cloud cover, keeps the peak from climbing higher while preventing sharp cooling. Historical October highs average 34–37 °C and decline through the month, providing a climatological anchor for the tight distribution. Minor model differences in afternoon sea-breeze timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the 45 % / 42.5 % split between the two leading outcomes; any unexpected clearing or stronger onshore flow could shift the final reading by 1 °C. Official station data from Jeddah King Abdulaziz International Airport will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.