Proposition 37, a citizen-initiated statute on California's November 3, 2026 ballot, authorizes the California Housing Finance Agency to issue up to $25 billion in revenue bonds for second mortgages covering as much as 17% of the purchase price on newly constructed homes. Eligible buyers, limited to California residents earning at or below 200% of area median income, would repay the loans through monthly payments with no direct state or local fiscal cost. The measure qualified after collecting well over the required signatures, backed by a coalition of real estate interests, labor unions, and Treasurer Fiona Ma, with no organized opposition filed. A June PPIC poll showed 53% support among likely voters. These factors, combined with the absence of counter-campaigning and the measure's focus on middle-income homeownership amid ongoing housing supply constraints, underpin traders' 69.5% implied probability for passage.