Recent September IPCA data showed a 0.82% monthly rise that lifted the 12-month rate to 4.58%, exceeding the 3% target center and market forecasts while remaining inside the 4.5% tolerance band, driven largely by food, energy, and transport components amid Middle East-related oil pressures. The Banco Central do Brasil’s Focus survey now places 2026 inflation expectations at 5.01% and the year-end Selic at 13.50%, reflecting trader consensus around a measured easing path after the September cut to 13.75%. With economic activity moderating and the exchange rate supportive, analysts anticipate 25-basis-point reductions at the November and December Copom meetings, though upside risks to inflation and fiscal uncertainty after the election limit prospects for larger moves. Market-implied odds therefore favor a 25 bp December cut as the base case while assigning meaningful probability to a pause or accelerated easing depending on incoming inflation prints and currency dynamics.