Recent September IPCA data surprised to the upside at +0.82%, lifting 2026 inflation forecasts to 5.22% and tempering enthusiasm for accelerated easing despite the Selic standing at 13.75%. This has positioned a 25 basis point cut as the consensus outcome for the December Copom meeting, with traders citing the central bank’s ongoing gradual easing cycle since March and moderating economic activity. Post-election optimism around potential fiscal tightening under leading candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has supported lower year-end Selic projections at 13.25% in the latest Focus survey, while persistent services inflation and elevated expectations limit odds of a 50 basis point move. The November decision and upcoming inflation prints remain key swing factors.