Iran maintains firm administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps garrisons, missile systems, and infrastructure, consistent with its position since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims. Recent diplomatic exchanges at the September 2026 UN General Assembly saw the UAE reiterate calls for bilateral talks or referral to the International Court of Justice, while Iranian officials rejected these positions outright and described sovereignty as non-negotiable. GCC statements and Arab League actions have condemned Iranian construction and military activity on the island but produced no shift in on-ground authority. US precision strikes earlier in 2026 damaged select facilities without altering primary control, and no subsequent military, diplomatic, or legal developments have displaced Iranian forces. Trader consensus in related markets has reflected these structural barriers, with low implied probabilities for any near-term change in status.