Incumbent Drew Dilkens holds a narrow edge over challenger Fred Francis in the Windsor, Ontario mayoral race ahead of the October 26 vote, reflecting incumbency advantages and visibility on major projects such as the battery plant, hospital expansion, and Gordie Howe International Bridge. Recent CBC and chamber debates have sharpened contrasts on homelessness services, downtown revitalization, transit restoration, parks investment, and responses to U.S. tariffs, with Dilkens emphasizing continuity and Francis highlighting new approaches to safety and housing. Advance voting has drawn higher participation than in 2022, though the crowded field of 11 candidates has consolidated trader focus on the two leading contenders. The implied probabilities capture this competitive dynamic, where late-campaign developments on economic pressures or turnout could still shift outcomes before polls close.