Recent polling shows support for the legislatively referred constitutional amendment hovering between 42% and 55% among likely voters, consistently short of the 60% threshold required for passage, with the most recent St. Pete Polls survey placing it at 42% and trending downward. Local governments and public safety unions highlight projected annual revenue losses exceeding $11 billion once fully phased in, raising concerns over funding for core services such as emergency response, infrastructure, and parks. Organized opposition has emphasized these tradeoffs, while the Yes campaign relies primarily on real estate industry spending amid limited engagement from some Republican leaders. Earlier court-ordered revisions to the ballot summary removed partisan phrasing, and undecided voters remain a sizable bloc four weeks from Election Day. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring failure.