Trader consensus in the Vancouver mayoral market assigns Pete Fry a clear lead at 66.8 percent implied probability, well ahead of incumbent Ken Sim at 31 percent and a crowded field of minor candidates near zero. Fry, the Green Party nominee, consolidated support among left-leaning parties after OneCity’s William Azaroff withdrew in early September, positioning him as the primary challenger. Recent polling from Leger and Canada Pulse Insights shows a tight contest days before the October 17 vote, with Fry and Sim separated by only a few points among decided voters amid high undecided shares. Key factors include voter priorities on housing affordability, public safety, and municipal services, plus Sim’s record as ABC Vancouver mayor seeking a second term. The market appears to price in Fry’s unified progressive backing and late-campaign momentum over the fragmented opposition.