Recent energy price surges, driven by Middle East tensions lifting crude above $100 per barrel and supporting coal and petroleum product costs, form the main catalyst elevating September 2026 PPI YoY expectations. August’s 5.4% print exceeded forecasts, extending the upward trend from July’s 4.7% and highlighting persistent goods and transportation pressures. Manufacturing PMI input and output price indices have climbed sharply, signaling further upstream cost pass-through, while services remain more contained. The broad probability distribution across 5.3%–5.9%+ outcomes reflects uncertainty over the extent of energy spillovers versus moderating demand, with tomorrow’s release serving as the key resolution event ahead of the October FOMC.