Recent polls show National and Labour tied or within one point at roughly 28% each in party vote support ahead of the November 7 election, with averages placing the parties nearly even. The latest 1News-Verian survey and multi-poll trackers reflect stability after the TVNZ leaders' debate lifted Labour leader Chris Hipkins in preferred prime minister ratings. Both parties trail their combined minor-party blocs in coalition math, with Opportunity, Greens, NZ First, and ACT holding swing potential. Campaign focus on cost-of-living measures, fiscal plans, and economic management has kept the race tight, while minor-party momentum and overhang seat calculations add uncertainty to which major party finishes ahead on the party list.