**Heightened Iran-related security threats continue to shape airline caution toward Ben Gurion Airport.** Lufthansa Group announced on November 5-6 that crews will avoid overnight stays in Israel through November 30, citing war risks, prompting schedule adjustments and possible cancellations for Lufthansa, SWISS, and affiliates while other flights continue with crew changes in Athens or Larnaca. Most basket carriers (Delta, United, British Airways, Air France) have resumed or expanded service since September-October 2026 after prior suspensions, though American remains out longer. Flydubai’s extended suspension until November 30 after the September 30 security incident illustrates persistent risk sensitivity. Traders assign the highest probability to a qualifying 14-day halt by at least three basket airlines occurring by January 31, 2027, reflecting concentrated near-term volatility alongside potential for de-escalation or further incidents before year-end.