Traders assign a 96.8% probability that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027, reflecting the severe setbacks from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that destroyed or heavily damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction activity at sites such as Minzadayi and Taleghan 2, yet these efforts focus on repair rather than rapid weaponization, while the IAEA reports limited access to remaining stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium and no verified active program. Ongoing diplomatic talks and a short remaining timeframe further constrain any breakout path. Scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated reconstitution of underground infrastructure or a policy shift amid stalled negotiations, though both face significant technical and political barriers in the current window.