US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow while leaving substantial uncertainty around the surviving stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, much of it stored in tunnels at Isfahan. Iran has barred IAEA inspectors from affected sites since the attacks, halting verification, while satellite imagery shows cleanup and vehicle activity at previously struck weapons-related compounds like Minzadayi but no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weapons work. These factors, combined with the short remaining window before 2027 and risks of further military action, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96.6 percent probability for no test. A rapid, undetected reconstitution of centrifuge capacity or decision to enrich remaining material to weapons grade could still shift outcomes before year-end.