**Forecasts for October 14, 2026, point to a minimum temperature in Guangzhou in the low-to-mid 20s °C, with official and model guidance showing lows around 23–25 °C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds.** This reflects the ongoing autumn transition in the Pearl River Delta, where daytime highs remain elevated (33–34 °C) due to strong solar heating and high pressure, while nighttime radiative cooling is moderated by residual humidity, urban effects, and minimal cold-air advection. Current conditions feature persistent fine weather with temperatures running several degrees above the long-term October 14 average low of ~21 °C. Model consensus (including recent runs referenced in regional forecasts) shows no significant cold front or stronger northerly flow arriving in the next 48 hours that would drive sharper drops. Key variables differentiating the closely matched market outcomes include the exact degree of overnight cloud cover, wind speed (which limits cooling), and any micro-scale urban heat retention—small shifts in these can easily move the minimum by 2–4 °C. Historical analogs indicate that mid-October minima this warm are common during stable high-pressure periods, though occasional early cold surges can produce readings in the upper teens. With resolution imminent, the balanced odds around the 23–25 °C and warmer/cooler extremes capture uncertainty in the final model guidance and potential last-minute adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts.