Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Houston on October 14 shows afternoon highs centered in the upper 80s to low 90s under southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture ahead of a Friday cold front. Key variables differentiating 88–89°F versus 90–91°F outcomes include daytime cloud cover from scattered showers, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact wind speeds, which can suppress or enhance surface heating. Persistent high dew points near 75°F support heat indices above 100°F but introduce uncertainty in maximum temperature realization. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the tight market-implied odds between these leading bins.