Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to an overnight low of 53–55°F for San Francisco on October 14, driven by building high pressure, light onshore flow, and a shallow marine layer that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 54.9°F and recent years’ observed minima near 51–55°F. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49% implied probability on 62°F or higher, appears to price in upside potential from model spread or delayed marine influence, while the clustered 33.5% odds on mid-50s buckets capture the most likely range. With resolution imminent, the next NWS forecast updates and any shifts in 500 mb ridging will be the key data releases that could adjust these market-implied odds.