Short-term forecast models for Mexico City on October 14 show broad uncertainty in minimum temperatures, with ensembles spreading outcomes across 8–16°C due to variable high-pressure ridging and potential cold-air advection from the north during the early dry season transition. Radiational cooling under clear skies could push readings lower, while increased moisture or cloud cover may moderate overnight lows. Official agency guidance notes typical model divergence at this lead time, with resolution hinging on exact wind patterns and dewpoint depressions. The market's near-equal distribution across central outcomes reflects traders pricing in this inherent forecast spread ahead of updated runs.